Sea levels Rising? Check the Measuremnts First!

26 Nov 2008

Here's an extract from an article in Pacific Magazine:

http://www.pacificmagazine.net/issue/2002/02/01/is-tuvalu-really-sinking

Check the Science
Well, rather than rely on Brown's "sense" of sea level rise, let's check the instruments. As it turns out, estimates of globally averaged sea level rise in the 20th century are irrelevant since Tuvalu's local sea level change is very different from the globally averaged change.

There are three estimates of sea level changes for Tuvalu.

The first is a satellite record showing that the sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993 when the hundred-million dollar international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began.

Second comes from the modern instruments recording tide gauge data since 1978. There the record for Tuvalu shows ups and downs of many inches over periods of years. For example, the strong El Nino of 1997-98 caused the sea level surrounding Tuvalu to drop just over one foot. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a natural - as opposed to man-made -future of the Pacific Ocean, as areas of the Pacific periodically warm then cool every few years, causing significant sea level rises and falls every few years in step with the co-oscillations of the ocean and atmosphere.

The overall trend discerned from the tide gauge data, according to Wolfgang Scherer, Director of Australia's National Tidal Facility, remains flat. "One definitive statement we can make," states Scherer, "is that there is no indication based on observations that sea level rise is accelerating."

Finally, there is the new estimate by scientists at the Centre Nationale d�Etudes Spatiales who also find that between 1955 and 1996 the sea level surrounding Tuvalu dropped four inches.

All these measurements show that Tuvalu has suffered, at worst, no sea level rise. So much for Brown's sense of sea level trends for Tuvalu.

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/



Warmest Regards

Bonzo

On Nov 26, 3:47�pm, "bnzoo" wrote: [ . . . ]

The first is a satellite record showing that the sea level has actually fallen four inches around Tuvalu since 1993 when the hundred-million dollar international TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite project record began.

You're just plain WRONG, Mr. BONZO, WRONG.
The Pacific Ocean data from the Topex/Poseidon radar altimetry satellite series shows nothing of the kind. They show sea a level RISE of 0.46 +- 0.05 mm/year with a high degree of confidence.
Call: lm(formula = msl ~ year)
Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -11.940 -3.547 -0.663 3.919 13.398
Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -915.5643 94.3037 -9.71 <2e-16 *** year 0.4580 0.0471 9.72 <2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 �***� 0.001 �**� 0.01 �*� 0.05 �.� 0.1 � � 1
Residual standard error: 4.84 on 531 degrees of freedom Multiple R-Squared: 0.151, Adjusted R-squared: 0.149 F-statistic: 94.4 on 1 and 531 DF, p-value: <2e-16
These data are from the University of Colorad's interactive sea level wizard at 8 degrees South Latitude, 178 East Longitude, the Tivalu Islands according to Rand McNally's Great Geographic Atlas of 1982:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/wizard.php?dlon=178&dlat=-8&map=t&fit=n&smooth=n&days=60
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/cgi-sealevel/table.cgi?dlon=178&dlat=-8&map=t&fit=n&smooth=n&days=60
year msl 1992.9595 -13.19 1992.9866 -13.24 1993.0138 -14.68 1993.0409 -7.98 1993.0680 -3.97 1993.0952 -11.44 1993.1223 -7.89 1993.1495 -9.95 1993.1766 -6.41 1993.2037 -6.44 1993.2310 -8.61 1993.2853 -8.85 1993.3124 -9.79 1993.3395 -7.29 1993.3667 -7.24 1993.3938 -9.62 1993.4210 -8.85 1993.4481 -7.62 1993.4752 -5.93 1993.5024 -5.36 1993.5295 -0.75 1993.5839 0.74 1993.6110 -1.26 1993.6382 -3.43 1993.6653 -1.04 1993.6925 -2.41 1993.7196 -4.18 1993.7467 -9.39 1993.7739 -10.12 1993.8010 -11.35 1993.8553 -7.89 1993.8824 -7.45 1993.9097 -9.30 1993.9368 -7.31 1993.9640 -7.02 1993.9911 -4.23 1994.0182 -0.92 1994.0454 0.19 1994.0725 2.30 1994.0997 -0.03 1994.1268 1.36 1994.1539 -0.68 1994.1812 -0.13 1994.2355 0.38 1994.2626 -1.83 1994.2897 3.71 1994.3169 2.62 1994.3440 1.79 1994.3712 -4.00 1994.3983 -1.68 1994.4254 -2.74 1994.4526 2.27 1994.5070 -2.14 1994.5341 -2.18 1994.5612 -2.70 1994.5884 -4.99 1994.6155 -4.00 1994.6427 -2.75 1994.6698 -4.38 1994.6969 -2.14 1994.7241 -1.94 1994.7512 -4.52 1994.7784 -6.10 1994.8055 -3.79 1994.8326 -4.92 1994.8870 -6.53 1994.9141 -5.37 1994.9413 -2.54 1994.9684 -5.76 1994.9956 -4.30 1995.0227 -3.67 1995.0498 -7.35 1995.0770 -1.93 1995.1041 0.51 1995.1313 -1.06 1995.1584 -0.76 1995.2128 -2.14 1995.2399 -3.85 1995.2671 -1.67 1995.2942 -2.50 1995.3213 -3.39 1995.3756 -2.75 1995.4028 -1.60 1995.4299 -4.66 1995.4570 -5.15 1995.4843 -4.90 1995.5657 -8.48 1995.5928 -5.48 1995.6200 -6.61 1995.6471 -6.34 1995.6743 -8.62 1995.7014 -7.00 1995.7285 -5.84 1995.7557 -3.73 1995.7828 -2.78 1995.8372 -3.09 1995.8643 -7.54 1995.8915 -6.52 1995.9458 -2.65 1995.9729 -3.80 1996.0000 -1.18 1996.0272 0.14 1996.0543 4.22 1996.0815 5.82 1996.1086 9.57 1996.1630 9.38 1996.1901 7.49 1996.2173 4.29 1996.2444 7.94 1996.2715 7.64 1996.2987 6.21 1996.3258 5.51 1996.3530 3.00 1996.3801 0.11 1996.4072 -1.92 1996.4344 -1.33 1996.4888 -0.85 1996.5159 -0.74 1996.5430 -2.64 1996.5702 1.80 1996.5973 -1.19 1996.6245 -2.84 1996.6516 -5.62 1996.6787 -2.87 1996.7059 -1.77 1996.7330 0.08 1996.7603 1.09 1996.8145 -1.77 1996.8417 -4.49 1996.8688 -4.73 1996.8960 -1.69 1996.9231 -2.97 1996.9502 -2.53 1996.9774 -7.99 1997.0045 -6.22 1997.0316 -7.85 1997.0588 -4.79 1997.0859 -3.30 1997.1403 0.42 1997.1674 -2.04 1997.1946 -2.01 1997.2217 -5.21 1997.2489 -0.03 1997.2760 -3.53 1997.3031 -0.67 1997.3303 -3.33 1997.3574 -3.42 1997.3846 -1.69 1997.4117 2.88 1997.4661 1.73 1997.4932 0.67 1997.5204 0.71 1997.5475 -2.19 1997.5746 -0.86 1997.6289 -2.28 1997.6561 -2.11 1997.6832 -5.54 1997.7103 -5.34 1997.7375 -0.90 1997.7919 -3.58 1997.8190 -6.36 1997.8461 -3.86 1997.8733 -2.47 1997.9004 -5.19 1997.9276 -7.42 1997.9547 -9.08 1997.9818 -4.76 1998.0090 -2.88 1998.0361 -3.49 1998.0905 1.14 1998.1176 5.82 1998.1448 7.05 1998.1719 9.61 1998.1991 8.55 1998.2262 10.43 1998.2533 11.01 1998.2805 13.07 1998.3076 10.11 1998.3348 10.66 1998.3619 8.01 1998.4163 8.22 1998.4434 4.08 1998.4706 -1.85 1998.4977 1.23 1998.5248 -1.42 1998.5520 1.59 1998.6063 3.28 1998.6334 1.49 1998.6605 0.34 1998.6877 4.50 1998.7148 4.89 1998.7421 7.10 1998.7692 3.24 1998.8235 4.65 1998.8506 4.61 1998.8778 -2.62 1998.9049 0.48 1998.9320 0.31 1998.9592 -0.70 1998.9863 -1.63 1999.0135 4.37 1999.0406 6.29 1999.0677 6.85 1999.0950 5.23 1999.1493 7.50 1999.1764 9.96 1999.2035 5.72 1999.2307 5.81 1999.2578 3.63 1999.2849 4.01 1999.3392 7.52 1999.3665 7.55 1999.3936 9.43 1999.4207 7.54 1999.4479 6.02 1999.4750 5.87 1999.5022 7.34 1999.5293 5.41 1999.5564 3.40 1999.5836 0.40 1999.6107 -2.52 1999.6379 -3.87 1999.6921 -1.02 1999.7194 -2.63 1999.7465 -2.93 1999.7737 -2.63 1999.8008 1.77 1999.8279 4.83 1999.8551 4.26 1999.8822 -1.24 1999.9094 1.36 1999.9636 5.28 1999.9908 4.56 2000.0179 5.15 2000.0452 4.40 2000.0723 3.90 2000.0994 5.39 2000.1266 6.77 2000.1537 6.79 2000.1809 3.01 2000.2080 1.03 2000.2351 0.98 2000.2894 0.40 2000.3167 2.44 2000.3438 0.73 2000.3708 -0.62 2000.3981 1.53 2000.4252 -0.29 2000.4524 -0.32 2000.4795 -1.23 2000.5066 1.78 2000.5338 0.78 2000.5881 -4.51 2000.6152 -1.19 2000.6423 -0.80 2000.6696 -3.87 2000.6967 -7.11 2000.7239 -3.63 2000.7510 -4.63 2000.7781 -3.35 2000.8053 -5.61 2000.8596 -6.96 2000.8867 -2.46 2000.9138 0.48 2000.9410 1.18 2000.9681 0.59 2000.9954 2.25 2001.0225 5.68 2001.0768 10.06 2001.1039 9.74 2001.1311 9.73 2001.1582 5.08 2001.1853 6.48 2001.2125 2.78 2001.2396 3.17 2001.2668 0.74 2001.2939 2.17 2001.3210 4.10 2001.3483 5.76 2001.3754 6.30 2001.4025 5.42 2001.4297 6.20 2001.4568 4.05 2001.4840 5.78 2001.5111 4.78 2001.5382 2.73 2001.5654 1.53 2001.5925 -0.90 2001.6198 1.25 2001.6469 -2.37 2001.6740 -2.86 2001.7012 -2.14 2001.7283 -0.59 2001.7555 2.57 2001.7826 -1.24 2001.8097 0.55 2001.8369 -0.26 2001.8640 5.11 2001.8912 7.98 2001.9183 9.73 2001.9454 9.95 2001.9727 8.98 2001.9998 8.95 2002.0270 9.23 2002.0541 7.98 2002.0812 9.44 2002.1084 9.24 2002.1355 8.32 2002.1627 7.13 2002.1898 7.60 2002.2169 5.59 2002.2441 6.84 2002.2712 5.90 2002.2985 6.55 2002.3256 3.92 2002.3527 6.61 2002.3799 6.79 2002.4070 6.03 2002.4342 6.07 2002.4613 9.43 2002.4884 10.31 2002.5427 9.08 2002.5699 10.02 2002.5970 2.26 2002.6241 0.13 2002.6514 -2.53 2002.6785 0.95 2002.7057 0.25 2002.7328 0.33 2002.7599 1.90 2002.7871 -1.08 2002.8142 -2.75 2002.8414 -2.62 2002.8685 -0.63 2002.8956 0.26 2002.9229 2.04 2002.9500 2.68 2002.9772 2.03 2003.0043 4.65 2003.0314 6.46 2003.0586 5.78 2003.0857 5.55 2003.1129 6.59 2003.1400 8.98 2003.1671 12.62 2003.1943 11.40 2003.2214 9.76 2003.2485 8.55 2003.2758 10.01 2003.3029 7.86 2003.3301 9.53 2003.3572 8.68 2003.3843 9.51 2003.4115 9.67 2003.4386 8.69 2003.4658 7.83 2003.4929 7.43 2003.5200 6.77 2003.5472 6.22 2003.5743 6.62 2003.6016 2.79 2003.6287 0.64 2003.6558 1.61 2003.6830 -0.62 2003.7101 -0.37 2003.7373 -2.58 2003.7644 -5.88 2003.7915 -2.22 2003.8187 -4.89 2003.8458 -2.93 2003.8730 0.03 2003.9001 0.12 2003.9272 -2.56 2003.9545 0.99 2003.9816 1.07 2004.0088 3.69 2004.0359 6.30 2004.0630 -0.50 2004.0902 0.13 2004.1173 1.14 2004.1445 1.62 2004.1716 4.94 2004.1987 4.84 2004.2260 2.20 2004.2531 6.22 2004.2803 8.62 2004.3074 13.83 2004.3345 8.54 2004.3617 9.37 2004.3888 8.80 2004.4160 6.67 2004.4431 1.71 2004.4702 4.40 2004.4974 3.53 2004.5245 4.27 2004.5518 -4.03 2004.5789 -1.02 2004.6060 -2.84 2004.6332 -5.30 2004.6603 -3.49 2004.6875 1.91 2004.7146 0.03 2004.7417 -3.37 2004.7689 -2.02 2004.7960 1.02 2004.8232 1.12 2004.8503 -1.66 2004.8774 -5.91 2004.9047 -6.14 2004.9318 -4.55 2004.9590 -2.63 2004.9861 -2.12 2005.0132 -5.11 2005.0404 -3.25 2005.0675 -1.68 2005.0947 0.27 2005.1218 -3.11 2005.1489 -2.53 2005.1761 -2.67 2005.2032 -2.44 2005.2305 -0.88 2005.2576 1.48 2005.2847 6.98 2005.3119 3.14 2005.3390 4.00 2005.3662 4.01 2005.3933 4.94 2005.4204 3.54 2005.4476 1.07 2005.4747 -0.58 2005.5018 0.82 2005.5291 -1.59 2005.5562 -0.70 2005.5834 -1.73 2005.6105 -2.85 2005.6376 -3.36 2005.6648 0.60 2005.6919 -0.17 2005.7191 1.90 2005.7462 1.63 2005.7733 2.41 2005.8005 0.39 2005.8276 1.99 2005.8549 0.60 2005.8820 0.53 2005.9091 1.95 2005.9363 2.30 2005.9634 3.39 2005.9906 1.80 2006.0177 2.10 2006.0448 -1.01 2006.0720 4.26 2006.0991 2.34 2006.1263 7.89 2006.1534 7.88 2006.1805 9.54 2006.2078 2.54 2006.2349 9.01 2006.2621 5.03 2006.2892 8.08 2006.3163 8.79 2006.3435 4.11 2006.3706 -1.14 2006.3978 1.60 2006.4249 -1.18 2006.4520 -0.57 2006.4792 -2.62 2006.5063 -5.52 2006.5336 -4.19 2006.5607 -3.91 2006.5878 -6.43 2006.6150 -5.13 2006.6421 -4.55 2006.6693 -5.25 2006.6964 -5.84 2006.7235 -2.93 2006.7507 -0.15 2006.7778 -1.30 2006.8051 -1.87 2006.8322 -3.93 2006.8865 -0.01 2006.9136 -2.83 2006.9408 -3.65 2006.9679 -5.98 2006.9950 -1.60 2007.0222 5.78 2007.0493 4.86 2007.0765 6.90 2007.1036 4.91 2007.1307 2.07 2007.1580 0.14 2007.1851 0.82 2007.2123 2.16 2007.2394 5.08 2007.2665 2.46 2007.2937 2.53 2007.3208 3.57 2007.3480 5.27 2007.3751 7.99 2007.4022 6.25 2007.4294 3.20 2007.4565 3.37 2007.4838 4.60 2007.5109 0.96 2007.5380 -0.02 2007.5652 -1.67 2007.5923 1.86 2007.6195 1.11 2007.6466 -2.71 2007.6737 -3.68 2007.7009 -2.15 2007.7280 -2.04 2007.7551 -2.02 2007.7823 -5.37 2007.8094 -4.85 2007.8367 -1.39 2007.8638 0.39 2007.8909 3.47 2007.9181 1.40 2007.9452 4.28 2007.9724 3.82 2007.9995 3.69 2008.0266 5.03 2008.0538 4.05 2008.0809 4.82 2008.1082 4.88 2008.1353 9.27 2008.1624 14.66 2008.1896 13.73 2008.2167 12.48 2008.2439 13.76 2008.2710 11.96 2008.2981 8.19

CORRECTION to my post titled "BONZO IS LYING, AGAIN":

of the kind. �They show sea a level RISE of 0.46 +- 0.05 mm/year with a high degree of confidence.

The data are in cm not mm. The last line quoted above should read:
+- 0.05 cm/year with a high degree of confidence.