Knock, Knock: Where is the Evidence for Dangerous Human-Caus

Robert M. Carter, Adjunct Research Professor
James Cook University, Townsville, Qld. 4811
(email: bob.carter@jcu.edu.au)

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS & POLICY, VOL. 38 NO. 2, SEPTEMBER 2008

'The new religion of global warming .. is a great story, and a phenomenal best
seller. It contains a grain of truth and a mountain of nonsense. And that nonsense
could be very damaging indeed. We appear to have entered a new age of unreason,
which threatens to be as economically harmful as it is profoundly disquieting. It is
from this, above all, that we really do need to save the planet'.
Nigel Lawson, p. 106, 'An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming', 2008.

I. INTRODUCTION
Before human-caused global warming can become an economic problem, it first has to be identified by scientific study as a dangerous hazard for the planet, distinct from natural climate change.

This notwithstanding, a number of distinguished economists have recently written
compendious papers or reports on the issue, for example Nicholas Stern (2006) and William Nordhaus (2007); in Australia, Ross Garnaut3 is currently undertaking a similar analysis. These persons, and many other public commentators and politicians as well, have indicated that they accept that there is a scientific consensus that dangerous, human-caused global warming is occurring, as set by the views and advice of the IPCC.

The IPCC is the United Nations body whose second chairman, John Houghton, wrote in 1994 that 'unless we announce disasters, no one will listen'. From that point forward, it was obvious that IPCC pronouncements needed to be subjected to independent critical analysis; in fact, the opposite has happened, and increasingly the world's press and politicians have come to treat IPCC utterances as if they were scribed in stone by Moses.

This is a reflection, first, of superb marketing by the IPCC and its supporting cast of influential environmental and scientific organisations; second, of strong media bias towards alarmist news stories in general, and global warming political correctness in particular; and, third, of a lack of legislators and senior bureaucrats possessed of a sound knowledge of even elementary science, coupled with a similar lack of science appreciation throughout the wider electorate - our societies thereby becoming vulnerable to what can be termed 'frisbee science', i.e. spin.

Having decided around the turn of the 20th century that 'the science was settled', for the IPCC said so, politicians in industrialized societies and their economic advisors started to implement policies that they assured the public would 'stop global warming', notably measures to inhibit the emission of the mild greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

However, the acronym GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) that has long been applied to computer modelling endeavours applies also to economic studies that purport to give policy advice against the threat of future climate change. For the reality is that no-one can predict the specific way in which climate will change in the future, beyond the general statement that multi-decadal warming and cooling trends, and abrupt climatic changes, are all certain to continue to occur. It is also the case that the science advice of the IPCC is politically cast, and thereby fundamentally flawed to a degree that makes it unsuitable for use in detailed economic forecasting and policy creation.

This is why Stern's work, for example, has been able to be so severely criticized on
both scientific and economic grounds (Carter et al. 2007; Tol 2006).

Richard Lindzen of MIT famously remarked of global warming alarmism a few years ago that 'The consensus was reached before the research had even begun'.

Another distinguished natural scientist, the late Sir Charles Fleming from New Zealand, made a similarly prescient statement when he observed in 1986 that 'Any body of scientists that adopts pressure group tactics is endangering its status as the guardian of principles of scientific philosophy that are worth conserving'.

These quotations are apposite, because pressure-group tactics in pursuit of
a falsely claimed consensus have become the characteristic modus operandi of the IPCC-led global warming alarmism that now surrounds us at every turn.

This is an economics journal, and as a scientist I am clearly not the appropriate person to discuss the economics of the global warming issue were there any need to do so. But I have argued above that sound science understanding is an essential prerequisite to any meaningful economic analysis, and that we have not yet attained such an understanding, least of all as represented by IPCC advice.

Therefore, the best service that I can render to readers is to alert them to the danger of wasting their time and talent - as many economists already have - in erecting rigorous economic models on the basis of fanciful or voodoo climate science.

My paper will concentrate, then, not on economics but on presenting a critical account of the scientific arguments that have been claimed as evidence for dangerous, human-caused global warming.

VII. CONCLUSIONS
To focus on the chimera of human-caused greenhouse warming while ignoring the real threats posed by the natural variability of the climate system itself is self-delusion on a grand scale.

.. That human-caused climate change will prove dangerous is under strong dispute
amongst equally well qualified scientific groups. The null hypothesis, which is yet
to be contradicted, is that observed changes in climate or climate-related phenomena
are natural unless and until it can be shown otherwise.
The science of climate change is far from settled. Meanwhile, there is no compelling
evidence that human-caused climate change poses a strong future danger.

.. No measurable environmental benefits have resulted from actions taken under the
Kyoto Protocol, nor can they be predicted to result from carbon dioxide emission
restrictions more generally. On the other hand, the social and economic disbenefits
of governments deploying such instruments are now reported daily in the media.
The available scientific data, and proved relationships, do not justify the belief that
carbon dioxide emission controls can be used as a means of 'managing' or 'stopping'
future climate change.

.. Bowen (2005) has well written:
'Science is based upon empiricism - the objective observation of natural phenomena,
and the attempt to encompass them in classifications, models and theories of everexpanding scope. This enormously important principle of the Enlightenment still needs affirming. The principle is under threat, from those of every religious and political persuasion and from those of none, who seek to impose their world view upon scientific enquiry. Science is not more important than morality. But without empiricism, there can be no science'.
The projections (which are not predictions) of computer modellers that are now almost the sole basis for IPCC climate alarmism must be assessed against the best available empirical evidence.
.. Climate variation has always occurred and always will. Citizens are right to be concerned about the possibly damaging effects of both the warmings and coolings which lie ahead. As with most potential natural disasters, however, the appropriate action is to have in place reactive response plans to manage the change when it occurs.
Dangerous climate extremes will not be prevented by reducing human carbon dioxide
emissions, but - as they occur - should be adapted to using similar response strategies
to those applied to other dangerous natural events such as earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, tsunami and sea-level change.

.. Attempting to 'stop climate change', or, in the present state of our knowledge and
technology, even to modify it, is an arcadian fantasy.
The Australian government should defer its Emissions Trading Scheme bill until
the completion of a thorough and independent judicial review into alleged humancaused global warming - as assessed against the reality of dangerous natural climate change.

.. Lastly, because we are far from understanding all the climatic feedback loops concerned, cutting carbon dioxide emissions is as likely to 'harm' as to 'help' future climate as judged against a human viewpoint.
Therefore, application of the principles of 'do no harm' and 'precaution' implies that
the correct climate policy is one of monitoring climate change as it happens, adapting
to any deleterious trends that emerge, and compensating those who are disadvantaged
through no fault of their own.12

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FIGURES 1-8
Temperature records for the globe for periods of time over the last 6 million to the last 6 years.
Direct measurements of temperature are not possible prior to about 150 years ago, so Figures
1-4 are based upon measurements of temperature proxies in core records. Figures 1-3 represent
local/regional temperatures; Figures 4-8 represent estimates of global temperatures. More
detailed comments on each figure are provided in their captions and the accompanying text.
Figure 1: Composite deep ocean temperature curve from DSDP Sites 86 and 849, North
Pacific, over the last 6 million years (proxy: oxygen isotope ratios in marine core; diagram
courtesy Alan Mix, after Mix et al. 1995a, b).
Figure 2: Surface air temperature at Vostok station, Antarctica over the last 400,000 years
(proxy: deuterium isotope ratios in ice core (Salamatin et al. 1998)).
ROBERT M. CARTER
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Figure 3: Surface air temperature above the Greenland ice cap over the last 5,000 years
(proxy: deuterium isotope ratios in ice core (Grootes et al. 1993) green stripes, warm
periods; black line, moving average).
Figure 4: Estimated surface global temperature record over the last 2,000 years (proxies:
variable, including from lake cores (pollen), ice cores and speleothems (Loehle and
McCulloch 2008) dotted lines envelope, error estimate).

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Figure 5: Estimated surface global temperature record over the last 150 years (averaged
worldwide thermometer measurements (U.K. Hadley Centre 2008) grey bars, error
estimate; blue line, 21-point moving average).
Figure 6: Estimated lower troposphere global temperature record over the last 50 years
(averaged worldwide radiosonde measurements from weather balloons
(Thorne et al. 2005).
ROBERT M. CARTER
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Figure 7: Estimated lower troposphere global temperature record over the last 29 years
(averaged worldwide microwave sensing unit (MSU) measurements from satellites;
Christy and Spencer, University of Alabama, Huntsville - blue line; Remote Sensing
Systems - blue line).
Figure 8: Estimated global lower troposphere (blue plot; MSU measurements) and ground
surface (purple plot; Hadley CRU) temperature records over the last 6 years, with fitted
cooling trendlines.

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Figure 9: Calculated tem perature increases (x-axis) for successive 20 ppm increments of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (y-axis) up to 400 ppm (MODTRANS (Archibald 2007)).
Figure 10: Comparison between measured surface temperature to 2005 (black line),
IPCC model projections of future temperature (red line plus scatter of estimates
represented by purple envelope) and projection of the 2001-2008 cooling trend
(Liljegren 2008). Note that the all IPCC projections now fall outside the error
bounds of the trend based on the elapsed temperature record.

1 Professor Bob Carter is a marine geologist who studies palaeoclimate. His research is funded by competitive public funding agencies, notably the Australian Research Council; he receives no funding from special interest groups such as environmental organisations, government agencies or industry.

2 The term 'global warming', as popularly used, is shorthand for the cumbersome phrase 'dangerous global warming caused by human carbon dioxide emissions'. For brevity and readability, I will sometimes adopt
that usage in this paper. Similarly, many people use 'climate change' as a synonym for 'global warming', with the same implicit definition of dangerous human causation. I will prefer to use 'climate change' in its native, self-evident meaning, adding the qualifiers 'human-caused' or 'natural' where necessary.

3 http://www.garnautreview.org.au/domino/Web_Notes/Garnaut/garnautweb.nsf

http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/rmcknockknock.pdf




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