Right time to invest in a solar photovoltaic system

I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
Dean

dean0 wrote:

I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2

He wants you to wait until a $4/watt incentive has expired before you buy a system? Is he nuts? He only does water, right? He doesn't do PV.

years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I

He is expecting prices to drop by $4 per watt, or he is expecting larger incentives to come along.

want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from

It won't be $4/watt more efficient, and you are losing money while you wait.

the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.

That is just bizarre. The PG&E guy who authorized my grid connection has a PV system on his house, in spite of the fact that he gets an employee discount on grid power.
You should check out what incentives are available, and what PV installers are in your area. http://dsireusa.org/ to start.
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5 http://cdold.home.mchsi.com/Solar-generation.htm $1643 avoided in 2006.

dean0 wrote:

I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase.

You might see some new federal incentives, depending on who the next president is and how Congress shakes out, but if anything I think you'll see state incentives drop. Experience shows that when incentives don't drop, neither do prices, and the recent trend has been subsidies that are gradually phased out to encourage everybody in the supply chain to make incremental progress (and to avoid the market shock that can come with the sudden end of a large subsidy). I don't know what Florida's plans are for its program, but I can't see them ever paying more than $4/watt. And of course, there's always the risk that the political climate in Florida will shift and the subsidies will abruptly end. (I don't keep up on Florida politics, so I can't comment on the likelihood of that....)
As for the technology, I'm not sure I'd worry too much about efficiency. It will really only affect the size and number of PV modules you need to buy. If you have limited space to put them then efficiency might be important, and if the number of modules in a low-efficiency system is going to be much greater than the number in a high-efficiency system then the former might cost more to install.
There is a lot of speculation about where prices will go in the next couple of years. In my opinion it hinges on two things: what happens with silicon supply, and whether or not the amount of thin-film PV that some people are forecasting actually hits the market. Without getting into too many details, I expect you might see silicon module prices drop by $1/watt or so over the next couple of years. I also expect you'll see more thin-film modules on the market than you do now, and that those will be somewhat cheaper than silicon modules; however, they will also have lower efficiencies (if you're still concerned about that) and significantly shorter warranties (10-15 years, as opposed to 20 years for silicon).
So in sum, it's pretty likely that prices will be lower in a couple of years, but subsidies are kind of wild card that make it hard to say what your out-of-pocket costs would be compared to now -- could be less, could be more, could be about the same. If Florida's plan is similar to California's, my money is on about the same. Even so, by waiting you stand the chance of the market shifting a little more in favor of the buyer (right now it's very much a seller's market), and you might see some innovative new designs that make long-term maintenance a little cheaper and easier (though that's not to say that it's difficult or expensive now).

Subsidies? This is Canada. We don't need no stinking subsidies!
lol sorry - couldn't resist.
But in all seriousness, if there are better subsidies later, what will the effect be? More demand, and a longer line-up waiting for purchase and installations. Especially if the grid becomes more problematic. Personally, I'd say go now.
But we don't have subsidies.
I'm also presuming that subsidies require your PV to be grid-tied? :-( -- Brian
(And yeah, solar thermal works wonderfully!)

dean0 October 23, 2007 10:24:13 am I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
Dean

On Oct 23, 1:21 pm, d...@01.usenet.us.com wrote:

dean0 wrote: I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2
He wants you to wait until a $4/watt incentive has expired before you buy a system? Is he nuts? He only does water, right? He doesn't do PV.
years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I
He is expecting prices to drop by $4 per watt, or he is expecting larger incentives to come along.
want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from
It won't be $4/watt more efficient, and you are losing money while you wait.
the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
That is just bizarre. The PG&E guy who authorized my grid connection has a PV system on his house, in spite of the fact that he gets an employee discount on grid power.
You should check out what incentives are available, and what PV installers are in your area. http://dsireusa.org/to start.
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5http://cdold.home.mchsi.com/Solar-generation.htm$1643 avoided in 2006.

Thanks for all the advice. I think I am going solar sooner than later. It doesn't make sense to wait when I can start saving immediately. Prices would have to drop dramically to recoup what I could save in electricity in the 2 years. By waiting I also run the risk of the incentives being cancelled or reduced, so it makes a lot of sense to go ahead and do this. The solar company that installed my water heater also does photovoltaic but I think they are so busy installing water heaters that they want to concentrate on that segment of their business. I will probably find another contractor that specializes in photovoltaics. Thanks again for your input.

In article , dean0 wrote:

You should check out what incentives are available, and what PV installers are in your area. http://dsireusa.org/to start.

Maybe someone has already noted this, but in CA the State rebate for residential systems gradually decreases, not with time, but as more kW of capacity are signed up for. Wait too long, no incentive rebate at all. (On the other hand, wait for a while and maybe prices drop, installers get more experienced, bugs get worked out, etc.)

AES wrote:

Maybe someone has already noted this, but in CA the State rebate for residential systems gradually decreases, not with time, but as more kW of capacity are signed up for.

Are you sure about that? I thought I had seen the schedule of reductions online.
http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/performance_based.html "The August 24th decision also set incentive levels for 2007, factoring in the impact of federal tax incentives, and defined a schedule for incentive reductions over the 10 years of the CSI:"
oops... further down, there are "steps". Those are pretty big steps though, 70MW per step, 100MW per step, those aren't additive.
The rate in California is now $2.50. I received $2.80 in Jan 2006.
As always, one needs to investigate their particular location, grid provider, state incentives, etc. I would prefer the assistance of one or two local sales companies.
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5

dean0 wrote:

The solar company that installed my water heater also does photovoltaic but I think they are so busy installing water heaters that they want to concentrate on that segment of their business.

I would expect different crews to do water verses PV, but I could be wrong, depending on the size of the company. California has a listing of all rebated installed systems, listing manufacturers, sales, and installing companies. Maybe something similar exists in Florida.
http://www.dsireusa.org or your local utility web page might be the starting point.
Water should be the most bang for the buck. I am still torn between a black can on the roof and a $6000 installed system. I think I'll wait till my present propane water heater dies, and get something on the spur of the moment. ;-)
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5

dean0 wrote:

What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.

Swings and roudabouts. The comments on effiency and rebate are true. The unknown is cost. If someone else getsinto panel manufacturing,then panel price may drop. no idea of factory set up lead time.
OTOH, panel prices (defintely) and installation costs (probably) can only continue to rise and inthe meantime you are still paying for electricty, etc.
If you have the money to invest in the system, do a standard investment analysis.
If you have to borrow the money, are interest rates rising in your area?
Another consideration is half now, half later, if it is a good investment.

On Oct 23, 11:43 am, dean0 wrote:

On Oct 23, 1:21 pm, d...@01.usenet.us.com wrote:


dean0 wrote: I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2
He wants you to wait until a $4/watt incentive has expired before you buy a system? Is he nuts? He only does water, right? He doesn't do PV.
years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I
He is expecting prices to drop by $4 per watt, or he is expecting larger incentives to come along.
want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from
It won't be $4/watt more efficient, and you are losing money while you wait.
the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
That is just bizarre. The PG&E guy who authorized my grid connection has a PV system on his house, in spite of the fact that he gets an employee discount on grid power.
You should check out what incentives are available, and what PV installers are in your area. http://dsireusa.org/tostart.
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5http://cdold.home.mchsi.com/Solar-generation.htm$1643avoided in 2006.
Thanks for all the advice. I think I am going solar sooner than later. It doesn't make sense to wait when I can start saving immediately. Prices would have to drop dramically to recoup what I could save in electricity in the 2 years. By waiting I also run the risk of the incentives being cancelled or reduced, so it makes a lot of sense to go ahead and do this. The solar company that installed my water heater also does photovoltaic but I think they are so busy installing water heaters that they want to concentrate on that segment of their business. I will probably find another contractor that specializes in photovoltaics. Thanks again for your input.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -

I second your feelings about going for it now. The future is uncertain, and if you have the means today, might as well follow your heart. If prices do drop drastically, you'll still get the savings you calculated based on today's prices, and can say that you were one of the pioneers that contributed to the growth of this industry.
Factors suggesting price drop:
new polysilicon supplies coming on line in 2 years US recession leads to reduced demand, lowering prices Technology improvements Democratic Administration and Congress remove $2000 cap on Federal tax credit
Factors suggesting price rise:
US dollar falls like crazy, Chinese panels become expensive Energy prices skyrocket, and solar prices follow high demand, not cost (buy solar stocks!) Florida rebate replealed / exhausted before the end of 2010 (do you trust their funding?) Already skimpy US residential tax credit is not renewed at all

On Tue, 23 Oct 2007 23:21:40 +0000 (UTC), dold@01.usenet.us.com wrote:

dean0 wrote: The solar company that installed my water heater also does photovoltaic but I think they are so busy installing water heaters that they want to concentrate on that segment of their business.
I would expect different crews to do water verses PV, but I could be wrong, depending on the size of the company. California has a listing of all rebated installed systems, listing manufacturers, sales, and installing companies. Maybe something similar exists in Florida.
http://www.dsireusa.org or your local utility web page might be the starting point.
Water should be the most bang for the buck. I am still torn between a black can on the roof and a $6000 installed system. I think I'll wait till my present propane water heater dies, and get something on the spur of the moment. ;-)
-- Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA GPS: 38.8,-122.5

Depending a bit on what you pay for electricity, have a look at a Heat Pump Hot Water Heater. Ive got one of these http://www.quantumenergy.com.au/Products/DomesticHotWater/tabid/382/Default.aspx
Much cheaper than a solar hot water heater,and about the same running costs,except they work equally well n winter , unless your ambient gets below -5 D C.

On Tue, 23 Oct 2007 07:24:13 -0700, dean0 wrote:

I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.

The efficiency of conventional (affordable) silicon cells has not been increasing much of late. It may be almost peaked-out. There are more exotic technologies, but their prices are still similarly exotic - worth it *if* NASA has sent you to Mars.
The base price per watt has gone down A LITTLE in the past few years, but PV manufacture *is* a fairly high-tech process requiring considerable precision. PVs have not responded to economy-of-scale issues very well, I think because they're expensive to make no matter how MANY of them you make.
Thin-film stuff DOES seem to be coming along however. Prices are steadly decreasing, efficiencies are, well, I suppose they're increasing just a tad. Even thus, raw efficiency is generally less of an issue than price per watt unless you've got a very tiny roof to put panels on. You can get by at 10% efficieny IF it's three or four times cheaper per watt than using 20% efficient cells. Your investment will pay off a lot quicker.
Subsidies/incentives ... personally I've never liked the concept. It simply disguises the cost of solar PV and robs your neighbors to satisfy your desires. But that's a philosophical issue ...
FEDERAL incentives ... don't count on much. The current administration is dedicated to putting as much profit into heavy industrys pockets as possible. That includes oil companies. (I really wish they'd move further into becoming "energy companies" and leave oil as just ONE line of business). Anyway, don't count on much. The "campaign contribution" system being what it is, even a DNC prez and DNC congress can't be counted on to seriously back solar energy. Maybe a few wind/tide projects ... just so they can look good ....
States do better. In your case, it's probably best to wait until late '09 to get the very best prices and efficiency before you take advantage of Floridas program. The state MIGHT offer a new and better incentive program after that, or might not. By mid '09 you'll have probably heard what's what.
. . .
Of note : I've heard of people nowdays having their new houses built with solar-electric in mind. Not only do they have them wired to facilitate grid/off-grid switching but they also add wiring for a seperate 12-volt lighting system with the assumption LED lamps will be used. Why waste power converting to AC just to run ceiling lights when LEDs can be run directly from DC ? Another fix popular at construction/renovation time is to install extra hard-points on roofs to help secure PV and/or themal panels plus the wiring/plumbing junk. Kinda makes your house "plug-and-play" the minute you feel like springing for the PVs without adding too much cost to initial construction. It's a LOT easier than trying to retrofit later ...

Terryc wrote:

dean0 wrote: What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
Swings and roudabouts. The comments on effiency and rebate are true. The unknown is cost. If someone else getsinto panel manufacturing,then panel price may drop. no idea of factory set up lead time.

Typically 6-12 months to set up a PV plant. If you're talking silicon PV, though, part of the reason silicon feedstock is so hard to come by right now is that it takes 18-24 months to set up a new silicon refinery. New PV plants have been announced faster than feedstock plants can even be built....

B1ackwater wrote:

On Tue, 23 Oct 2007 07:24:13 -0700, dean0 wrote:
I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
The efficiency of conventional (affordable) silicon cells has not been increasing much of late. It may be almost peaked-out. There are more exotic technologies, but their prices are still similarly exotic - worth it *if* NASA has sent you to Mars.
The base price per watt has gone down A LITTLE in the past few years, but PV manufacture *is* a fairly high-tech process requiring considerable precision. PVs have not responded to economy-of-scale issues very well, I think because they're expensive to make no matter how MANY of them you make.

A couple of comments on that: First, *retail* prices for silicon PV modules have only gone down a little in recent years, but manufacturing costs (aside from the cost of raw silicon) have dropped considerably. The shortage of purified silicon has (1) kept silicon prices high and (2) prevented PV module supply from meeting demand. The first has kept manufacturing costs from falling as far as they otherwise would -- using silicon prices of 5 years ago, manufacturing costs would be lower by about $0.50/watt. The second has kept retail prices high, by more than $1.00/watt by one estimate I've heard.
As for economies of scale, silicon PV plants haven't really reached the level where they can take advantage yet. There's little manufacturing equipment available that is built for the PV industry, for one thing, and manufacturers (except for REC) have zero control over the price of purified silicon, far and away the most expensive single material in a PV module. Many people estimate that they won't see real economies of scale until individual plants start to reach the 500-1000 MW level, which companies will just be starting to hit in the coming year -- at that point, silicon PV companies can start thinking about more vertical integration, like purifying their own silicon (which would free them from the commodity market) and making their own glass.

Thin-film stuff DOES seem to be coming along however. Prices are steadly decreasing,

Manufacturing costs are steadily decreasing, but retail prices will ultimately be determined by supply and demand. I expect the prices will be lower than for silicon (and I think they *must* be, for several reasons), but I don't think they'll be *too* much lower, regardless of manufacturing cost.

On Tue, 23 Oct 2007 07:24:13 -0700, dean0 wrote:

I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the remaining power to my home. I live in Florida and the state pays 4/ watt up to $20,000. That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions. He could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2 years. He said the technology is getting more efficient and the prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase. I want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also. The advice from the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can recieve my $450.00 credit. What should I do, invest now or wait about 2 years.
Dean

I'm a Floridian looking at the same issues. My take is that I'm going ahead with full PV ASAP. It's a simple bird-in-hand equation adding a more complex present value of future (energy lost) $$$.