Date: Tue Mar 07, 2006 5:40 am. By: H2-PV NOW
Don Lancaster wrote:
LongmuirG wrote: The sadly-misnamed H2-PV scribbled:
Here's Shell bragging to a DOE audience that they are making PV for under $2/watt back in 2003. See slide #20 of 23. (1.2 MB dload)
And then Shell went & sold their photovoltaic business. Strange. Of course, they would not have been the first investor to talk it up and sell it out.
The whole problem with PV today is that it is predicated on an OUTRIGHT LIE.
The whole problem of Don Lancaster in any PV or H2 discussion is everything he says is predicated on lies.
Google records 21,800 messages from Lancaster: http://snipurl.com/n9lu Results 1 - 100 of 21,800 for author:d...@tinaja.com
Here's 35 times Lancaster repeats NOT REMOTELY RENEWABLE since 2003. http://snipurl.com/n9lz
Here's 31 times sine 2000 he used the phrase PV net destroyers of gasoline http://snipurl.com/n9m2
Twenty times and places he used the terms PV net destroyer of energy http://snipurl.com/n9ma
There is NO pv available anywhere at any price today that is even remotely renewable or sustainable. Nor will there EVER be renewability or sustainability using conventional silicon technology.
Silicon is purified by electricity. First to Metal-Grade Si using electric arc furnaces. At this point it is called "Metal-Grade" because it is sold to be added to metal alloys, and only a small fraction goes to electronics and PV use. It's pretty cheap, comes in the form of nuggets or granule., and sells fopr about $25 per ton. The price reflect the energy in it, plus all other costs like labor, capital, interest, blah blah, yada yada. You can see from the price that there is not any exhorbitant anount of energy in this.
The next stage is the Seimens process. This is expensive, but that has to do with environmental cleanup equipment, caustic chemicals, safety precautions. Since the Si is melted again, just like it was in the first case, the energy cost is roughly the same as it was the last time the Si was melted. Most of this product goes to the electronics industry, and the PV industry cannot outbid on that.
Cheap Si ICs cost pennies, and Lancaster has published books on how to use this dirt cheap Silicon in worthless hobby projects. The PV industry has never been able to outbid the electronics industry for the stuff and get the bulk discount prices the electronics guys get.
PV buys the scrap, off-spec and waste from the electronics SI. While this is cheap, it has limits based on how much Electronics-Grade Si is made in the first place. In a depression for the electronics industry, the scrap and waste supply is low because the industry is down 50% from their hay-day.
That puts a squeeze on the prices. A Solar-Grade Si supply chain has never been created due to low demand, in part because of nattering nabobs of negativity like Don Lancaster.
The scrap El-grade Si is melted down a third time, in any one of a dozen different PV wafer or cell processes. The energy used here varies by a facter of tenfold between the most efficient and least efficient. The trolls always seek out the least efficient processes to hold up to demonstrate some point of naysayism.
After this step almost all the later steps converge into identical finishing processes which use 10% to 25% of the total energy.
Since the product has been melted three times, it has three melt energies involved, and they represent the bulk of all energy consumed in making the PV.
Solar PV creates electricity from sunlight, and it creates enough energy from sunlight that it can create enough new PV to reproduce itself, watt for watt replication or breeding, every 35 days. The energy produced from every acre of Si cells can create a new acre of PV 10.5 times per year. That is a net gain of 1,050%, and over the 25 year lifetime (modern PV now comes with 25 year guarantees), that is a net gain of 26,250%.
These computations are based on the traditional triple melting of Si, but those three stages occurring at three seperated locations can be combined into two stages at one location, or one stage at one location. In short, the first melt can be the final melt, and 2/3rds of the power consumption can be eliminated. Many people have tried over five decades to succeed and have failed -- it remains to be seen if the proprietary know-how will emerge without warning to suddenly drop the barriers to PV Si supply.
Of course naysayers who hate PV will not be informed of cutting edge techniques because they can't stand stufying the idea at all. Lancaster will be one of the last on the planet to become informed when the new processes come online.
ALL systems to date are net destroyers of gasoline and similar conventional energy sources. When properly and honestly full burden accounted over total and full lifetime costs.
NO GASOLINE IS CONSUMED IN MAKING PV.
Lancaster is implying that energy equivilient to the energy in gasoline, and it is wasted, because he don't like PV and thinks it's a big waste. ONe acre of PV can electrolyze water to produce 26,000 kilograms of Hydrogen, equivilient to 26,000 gallons of gasoline every year, and given a 25 year guarantee, one acre of PV can electrolyze water to produce two-thirds of a million gallons of gasoline-equivilent energy.
PV IS A NET PRODUCER OF GASOLINE equivilent energy. And it produces clean-burning fuel from clean pollution-free sunlight.
All pv systems shipped to date should have a large label on them: WARNING: This device is a net destroyer of conventional energy sources
ENERGY IS NEITHER CREATED NOR DESTROYED. Lancaster is sloppy with languange, and you can see he is just as sloppy with his research.
and contributes significantly to global warming and other environmental destruction!!!
PV DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO GLOBAL WARMING OR ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION.
The entire production chain of PV can be powered by clean pollution-free PV every step of the way. Some mfgrs are using grid electricity to make the three melts required in Si, and THEY are using the same dirty coal-powered electrons that Lancaster uses to spew his pollution. Nothing about PV requires using the pollution choices instead of the clean choices. It's business decisions made by polluting managers, not something required by PV.
There, of course, is NO renewability or sustainability at the magic fifty cents per peak watt grid parity, as all you have is a fancy smoke and mirrors transfer scheme where conventional energy becomes solar in disguise.
Now Lancaster is just sputtering incoherently, probably drunk again.
A 50 cent figure was tossed out as ten times what a cheap beer bottle costs made out of the same sand that PV cells start from. Anybody who knows how much machinery and power is used in a beer bottle plant knows that PV does not use more power than a 5 cent beer bottle. Just to play fair I multiplied the energy value by ten over a 5 cent beer bottle, to come up with an inflated 50 cents a watt. Actually, PV made in the same bulk quantities as much as beer bottles would probably come out to 5 cents a watt.
The nattering nabobs of negativity naysayers like Lancaster is what holds back the production to ever get as much as mayonaise jars
It is only when you get significantly UNDER fifty cents per watt that the small DIFFERENTIAL fraction can in fact become renewable or sustainable.
The reason Shell sold out is that they realized the utter futility and fundamental dishonesty of Si panels. Combined with the fact that ALL AVAILABLE SILICON HAS BEEN SOLD THROUGH 2006.
The reason it has been sold is because smart buyers bought. They have their supply -- it's the marginal operators that will get squeezed to death by this latest war by the oil industry to corner supply and injure their competition.
The latest technology (which may actually get us as much as ONE THIRD OF THE WAY towards renewability and sustainability, possibly in less than a decade) is called CIGS. An intro is found at
Lancaster is not objective and not informed. Going to the TROLL'S LAIR, er, I mean LIAR, will do nothing for you. Go to the public university and government websites to get unbiased and well researched information. Besides, the TROLL'S LIAR is full of obnoxious ads to sell you worthless crap.